There is to be a meeting at the MCA on Maritime Safety today 13th December 2005.
The following report expresses the views of the CYCC as reported at the CYCC annual General meeting. It outlines the forecasts needed so as to plan our voyages and to stay out of trouble from inclement weather.
Public Meteorological Service needs for recreational sailors
By David Darbyshire
Hon. Secretary, Conference of Yacht Cruising Clubs
Yachtsmen need to take weather into account when planning their voyages and on passage so as to stay out of trouble until they arrive at a safe haven.
Available to yachtsmen are forecasts from the UK's National Meteorological Service, free at the point of use, and from others, normally based on data from the Met Office and its overseas peers. Currently, the forecasts most used are provided by the Maritime & Coastguard Agency, reflecting its responsibilities under the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System, and by BBC Radio 4. The MCA defines its duty as to provide the shipping forecast, gale warnings, high seas forecast and storm warnings, inshore waters and strong winds forecasts and shipping charts. The BBC replicates the shipping forecast four times a day and the inshore waters forecast twice a day. Forecasts are transmitted by radio and, for high seas forecasts, by satellite. Internet forecasts are increasingly available, but not yet via the public service other than through the MCA, Met Office and BBC websites.
We need to consider changes to the presently available public forecasts to make them more accessible and to take account of rapid developments in the Met Office's forecasting capability. The general conclusions of the CYCC, RYA and RIN's debates in winter 2004/2005 suggest that most yachtsmen have the following needs.
Forecast requirements
All prudent passage planning, other than day-sails, requires a three-to-five day forecast, so that the mariner can establish the trend of risk. Passage making requires a one-to-two day forecast so the mariner can react to impending changes in weather.
Forecast coverage
Longer term planning forecasts require a synopsis of the evolving general situation over the North Atlantic and European waters and an assessment of its likely impact in the United Kingdom shipping areas. The shipping forecast and inshore waters forecasts make a bridge between planning and passage forecasting needs. The passage needs for yachtsmen rest particularly on the inshore waters forecasts, currently covering UK waters in 120 mile segments. However, we note the Met Office's developing ability to divide these into 60 mile segments (or even smaller) and this is seen as highly desirable for yachtsmen. There is a considerable body of opinion that values reports of the actual weather at coastal stations, but there is some scepticism among others as to how far this information is really used to support decisions when on passage. The perceived need for these reports may decrease as higher quality inshore waters forecasts become progressively more available.
Timing of forecasts
Forecasts every twelve hours, as used for the 0700 and 1900 GMDSS shipping forecasts seem sufficient for the longer term and UK sea area forecasts. Inshore waters forecasts are generally looked for every four or six hours, with care needed to ensure that they are at user-friendly times. The choice between four hours and six hours seems less important and should, ideally, be organised so that forecasts are broadcast promptly after they become available from the Met Office, which does not always seem to be the case at present. Additionally, the forecasts should invariably be broadcast, whether by the Coastguard or BBC, at the scheduled time. This raises particular problems for the Coastguard to resolve, due to the conflicts that arise from the priority that needs to be given by broadcasting staff to emergency working. Also, there may be an argument for decoupling the weather and navigational warnings content of the broadcasts to assist in managing the time of transmissions.
Means of broadcasting
Broadcast forecasts should continue as at present by radio via VHF and NAVTEX, on either or both of the international 518 kHz and national 490 kHz frequencies, in particular, and also on MF, as long as MF is maintained. The high seas forecasts are a separate issue, not discussed here. As with reports from coastal stations, there is a considerable body of yachtsmen that rely on the BBC Radio 4 forecasts on long wave, but there are real concerns about timing and content that seem difficult to resolve, given the pressure on the BBC's other programming requirements.
Attention needs to be given to posting all the forecasts immediately on issue by the Met Office on the MCA and Met Office or on dedicated websites. The relevant pages on these sites should be stripped of all extraneous detail to facilitate access on board ship by radio or telephone. The Met Office and MCA should desirably consider developing this website material to include additional information, notably the surface and other analyses and predictions that are less and less available by weatherfax.
Material provided to commercial providers of, for example, telephone forecasts should desirably be made conditional on forecasts being posted promptly and on 'padding' material being eliminated to reduce the time and cost of reception.
Future developments
These are based on the assumption that the MCA will be as flexible as possible in taking advantage of both forecasting developments of the Met Office and the pattern of equipment, notably computer and transmission receiving equipment used by mariners, whether on shore or at sea. Thus, such innovations as the availability of GRIB data in small packets for use via mobile telephone for presentation on ship-borne computers would surely be better provided by the Met Office rather than needing to be sought from the NOAA or others. The developments will, of course, be influenced by any decisions as to the successor for NAVTEX as part of GMDSS.
