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 CRUISING 22 / 11 / 06
 

Cathy's Blog: Misleading forecast

A brisk breeze

I felt a bit let down by the weather forecasters this weekend. I hate to moan, because the vast majority of the time they provide an absolutely reliable and indispensable service. But we had a long weekend free, and were hoping to get somewhere on the boat. And the forecast was so dire that it seemed positively foolhardy to set out.

To be fair, on Friday it would have been. We went for a walk along the beach at Dunwich, and the wind was so strong it was hard to stand up, and “beating” back upwind was seriously hard work. The waves bashing into the shore, sending up clouds of spray, convinced us we had been entirely right to leave the boat safely tied up in the marina.

But then on Saturday the sun came out and the wind dropped. There was still a gale forecast in force, and we hummed and hah'd for ages about what to do. It's not that we mind sailing in a lot of wind, given a bit of searoom. It's the “parking” that gets complicated - especially two up.

We desperately wanted to go out, but were concerned that if we went, and the wind got up as forecast, getting back could be problematic.

In the end the dilemma was solved when marina neighbours asked us to go out with them. They too wanted to sail in the sunshine, but felt it would be wise to have some help getting back into the berth if the forecast gale really did materialise. In fact it didn't. And we had a thoroughly enjoyable afternoon, reaching along with a single reef, on an enjoyably brisk bright day.

On Sunday morning the forecast was even more dire. There was actually an impending Force Nine in the inshore waters forecast. But the sun was shining out of a clear blue sky, and there was hardly any breeze at all.

This time we didn't hesitate. We decided that if we watched the sky we should have plenty of time to get back before the threatened squally showers. And we didn't even need a reef. We listened to the 12.01 shipping forecast, which was full of Tens, Elevens and even a couple of Twelves.

“You can say you've been out on a day with a hurricane forecast!” laughed the skipper. The wind was gradually getting up, but we were able to stay out until the sunny afternoon gave way to early evening chill, still without needing to reef.

If only we'd known what a super weekend it was going to be, we would have done a “there and back” trip, rather than a couple of day sails. I don't know why, but even though you spend just as much time on the water, and the sailing is just as much fun, day sailing is somehow never quite as satisfying as going to a different destination.

As I write this, the forecast for the coming weekend remains wet and windy. Should we believe it? Or should we be choosing a destination? Fingers crossed, we'll have a proper cruise to talk about next week.

The question is, after last weekend's disappointment, how seriously should we take the forecast?


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Discuss this article, 1 of 5 messages, read more:
Phil Dobson 
Posted: 23/11/06 09:32:19 19
I think there is a danger that Met Office overforcasts-trys to cover everything everywhere in too much detail.This autumn I was trying to move a boat from Loch Linnhe around Ardnamurchan Point to a winter mooring at Plockton. In an attempt to round Ardnamurchan in reasonable conditions with favourable tides I became hooked on local five day coastal forcasts-as a result I never moved the boat!-despite days of calm conditions in between the numerous depressions that have passed north west Scotland during the past couple of months.
Phil
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